Bundesliga · resolved market
SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e265b6961e376ee34fb99876fbebbfaa81b0812305ef97b9f2312dc44447b0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,008
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,895
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,008 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 24c | 9,459$2,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,289.7 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5f…4b52backed Under | 78c | 8,247$6,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,816.92 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 77c | 2,166$1,667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.04 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Over | 39c | 1,707$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.67 | 106 | 41.5%44 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 32c | 555.18$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.53 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 79c | 504.72$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.72 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 65c | 444$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.4 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Over | 36c | 284.98$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.59 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 21c | 265.65$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.46 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 34c | 248$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.24 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbea4…be87backed Under | 66c | 195$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ad…c3c9backed Over | 30c | 182.44$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +173.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Under | 66c | 172$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.48 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Under | 78c | 170.29$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.32 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 20c | 160.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +13.8wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0923backed Under | 67c | 159$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.95 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f01…8bd0backed Over | 35c | 135$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 40c | 110.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fca…6129backed Over | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 34c | 47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2342…d7cebacked Over | 34c | 41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 76c | 37.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf71c…488bbacked Over | 34c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe1…e560backed Over | 34c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x152c…3b50backed Over | 34c | 31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Under | 65c | 26.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 3.5this page
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 1.5Over won
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 2.5Under won
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.