Bundesliga · resolved market
SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca769fb5d4ecfcf8e4a2f0fffb815594b12a7c12649d1d81ed76b72946c4c07f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,286
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,286 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 6,584$2,924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,659.71 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…85bbbacked Over | 58c | 6,405$3,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,714.94 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 41c | 1,499$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.64 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 59c | 999.99$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.99 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Over | 59c | 682.78$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 48c | 621.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.54 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0146…5ddebacked Under | 49c | 610.48$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.48 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 41c | 600$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.91 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 43c | 443.99$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.08 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 54c | 300.08$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.54 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +15.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Under | 44c | 207.72$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.32 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 39c | 143.61$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.23 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +13.8wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 50c | 136.48$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.24 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Over | 55c | 122$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.1 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 63c | 120$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.44 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under | 42c | 120$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…21eebacked Over | 58c | 112.55$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.28 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -7.3wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9048…07f2backed Over | 57c | 108.68$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.95 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcb…1879backed Over | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Over | 55c | 82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 71c | 60.26$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…cc70backed Over | 56c | 57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.43per pick | 57cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Over | 61c | 51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6162…e856backed Under | 45c | 48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e29…c992backed Under | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed Over | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…6d41backed Under | 45c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x321c…18ddbacked Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 54c | 33.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d19…8b58backed Under | 45c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +102%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 48c | 31.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…e730backed Under | 45c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…0d65backed Over | 51c | 27.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x711d…fe4bbacked Under | 44c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0156…2ddcbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -5.1wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 2.5this page
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 1.5Over won
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 3.5Under won
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.