Earnings · resolved market
Will Box (BOX) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb85c8990f64e5012be7434af44659c8bf6b11e08bd2c3aeb507e04365b4d08a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,386
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,605
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,386 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd00…4fc0backed No | 25c | 278.43$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 28c | 183.69$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7463…972dbacked Yes | 74c | 138.54$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a28…aa5cbacked Yes | 79c | 116.51$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9400…4f20backed No | 20c | 88.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +87%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 31c | 80.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 85 | 16.5%14 W · 71 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x520c…c42dbacked Yes | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x068d…0d9ebacked Yes | 72c | 69.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17ba…537dbacked Yes | 75c | 66.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.30per pick | 56cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 77c | 53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9458…c97fbacked No | 57c | 43.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…e61cbacked No | 27c | 42.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc121…e0c3backed Yes | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 64cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d57…0cfdbacked Yes | 75c | 40.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1181…a251backed Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…38c0backed Yes | 75c | 32.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 40c | 32.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e95…15b0backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cf…7601backed Yes | 77c | 22.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed Yes | 45c | 22.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafd7…f634backed Yes | 64c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…e8b4backed Yes | 72c | 16.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e39…313fbacked Yes | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 77cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2a…df66backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.