Europa Conference League · resolved market
Aston Villa FC leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfba758112f88c255fd4ad9aba9fc538da7898bb7e365c00822b7eb72c87a358a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,225
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,724
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,225 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1653…0348backed Yes | 44c | 2,282$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,281.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d96…7c16backed No | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,139.99 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 64c | 1,934$1,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,232.95 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked No | 6c | 1,650$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Yes | 43c | 1,291$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.7 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc046…f138backed Yes | 42c | 1,190$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Yes | 45c | 1,016$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.8 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed No | 55c | 677.78$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.78 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked No | 59c | 590.69$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.51 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f5…c161backed Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0527…a978backed Yes | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 60c | 317.77$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.89 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 55c | 313.92$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.66 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff4…b609backed Yes | 40c | 247.5$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe741…a9d1backed Yes | 42c | 237.47$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccfa…6be3backed Yes | 46c | 216.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 56c | 210$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.6 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.9wins | +0.35per pick | 43cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…387fbacked Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf703…541abacked Yes | 43c | 174.42$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +51%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 42c | 156$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.48 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 20c | 152.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 160 | 13.1%21 W · 139 L | -18.8wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -47%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 43c | 137.67$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.47 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked No | 59c | 117.07$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.05 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -9.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x155d…3ec8backed Yes | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d8…cea4backed Yes | 44c | 110$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 55c | 107.26$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.45 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 58c | 102.6$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.49 | 117 | 49.6%58 W · 59 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf0…fdbebacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4490…fe8bbacked Yes | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +95.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01d7…5fd2backed No | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 72cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0aab…7aacbacked Yes | 44c | 79.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd731…64a6backed Yes | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed No | 57c | 66.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed No | 27c | 66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed Yes | 73c | 66$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x361f…5edabacked Yes | 43c | 64.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 52cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…9a6abacked Yes | 36c | 61.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…6b14backed Yes | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 43c | 47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5100…7c4ebacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +114.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf479…0fe3backed Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…a2dfbacked Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Yes | 42c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 76c | 18.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aston Villa FC leading at halftime?this page
- SC Freiburg leading at halftime?No won
- SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Draw at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.