Europa Conference League · resolved market
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Draw at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x175f2fb63268073492cfab2856355b4a4c8637face49bf011e71a32d8d9d90e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,910
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,041
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,910 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Yes | 74c | 2,634$1,949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,948.98 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 38c | 1,656$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029.82 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 62c | 1,508$935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.9 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cd…a98dbacked Yes | 43c | 1,163$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d96…7c16backed No | 57c | 1,103$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.11 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 35c | 743$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.19 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.9wins | +0.35per pick | 43cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 26c | 647.82$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.39 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked Yes | 6c | 624.18$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 34c | 623.06$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.99 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Yes | 56c | 282.76$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.93 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -9.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6b…ca1bbacked Yes | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc68…1c00backed Yes | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4446…1fd0backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7d…0a9ebacked Yes | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +128.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…2e83backed Yes | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…c18cbacked Yes | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81a8…9c69backed No | 58c | 115.45$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.49 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Yes | 58c | 110$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f5…c161backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97b3…4a85backed Yes | 42c | 99.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…e78bbacked Yes | 44c | 90.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…2cabbacked No | 22c | 85.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4204…165abacked Yes | 61c | 81.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 46c | 78.41$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 117 | 49.6%58 W · 59 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe3…dc29backed Yes | 53c | 62.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabd8…553cbacked Yes | 59c | 59.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 74c | 51.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 132 | 56.8%75 W · 57 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa24d…38b2backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Yes | 60c | 41.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…3d84backed Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed0d…3646backed Yes | 64c | 34.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb34…6f11backed Yes | 46c | 30.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed No | 58c | 27.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Yes | 42c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94e3…49b7backed Yes | 75c | 24.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed No | 58c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fe…1daabacked Yes | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Draw at halftime?this page
- Aston Villa FC leading at halftime?Yes won
- SC Freiburg leading at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.