Asian League · resolved market
Gamba Ōsaka vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbafcfaa3f9c6bc7cf6b4bb0b64305f5d3f9ec4bfb7345be0ba3af6623d35c00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,690
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,142
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,690 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 49c | 577.36$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.74 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 23c | 566.97$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.76 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 14c | 556.75$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.09 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…7da3backed Over | 77c | 493$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.78 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +455.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 51c | 322.6$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.8 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf706…f685backed Over | 75c | 226.2$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.65 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…7736backed Under | 23c | 201.86$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +90%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 17c | 162.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.89 | 184 | 46.2%85 W · 99 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Over | 75c | 136$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 19c | 125$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.25 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 19c | 125$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.25 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 19c | 125$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.25 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 20c | 120.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.94 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe08f…ea46backed Under | 66c | 101.47$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x305e…b28bbacked Under | 26c | 80$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +283.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9817…28bcbacked Over | 50c | 59.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee5b…dac8backed Over | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 69c | 49.28$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 276 | 39.5%109 W · 167 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 257 | 42%108 W · 149 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9da…f7d9backed Over | 56c | 44.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…860fbacked Over | 36c | 41.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cf…0425backed Over | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.29per pick | 60cpaid | -52%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d9…7ae8backed Over | 60c | 36.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -60%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Over | 40c | 35.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 61c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 426 | 25.8%110 W · 316 L | -33.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb5…c801backed Over | 53c | 20.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Over | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 64 | 68.8%44 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e91cbacked Over | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | -8.5wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a9…3003backed Over | 79c | 14.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 80cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 1.5this page
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 2.5Under won
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 3.5Under won
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Gamba Ōsaka (-1.5)Cerezo Ōsaka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.