Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs. SV 07 Elversberg end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbb9dab333cfc68228a7920d7d7b78a414ed7cb510b122bb1ac767675647e8f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,109
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,109 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa560…f42ebacked Yes | 14c | 4,697$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,032.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +607.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 70c | 3,523$2,454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,453.8 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 41c | 3,088$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,807.77 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 38c | 2,279$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,419.77 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 71c | 1,921$1,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,364.01 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 17c | 1,118$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.84 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2461…f240backed No | 42c | 730.66$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…d5cfbacked Yes | 62c | 315.23$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 68c | 300$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.23per pick | 58cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 69c | 277.8$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.72 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…1caabacked Yes | 53c | 212.76$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.04 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef20…c46abacked No | 64c | 195.73$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.07 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf277…9a5fbacked No | 55c | 177.51$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.29 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 75c | 159.13$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.16 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 17c | 155.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.77 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 72c | 154.93$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.4 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 61c | 141.78$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.01 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Yes | 25c | 132.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.07 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6084…5c17backed Yes | 26c | 111.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Yes | 26c | 106.07$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.49 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 12c | 84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.92 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 19c | 78.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…c638backed Yes | 31c | 70.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.12 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 29c | 69.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.91 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 73c | 68.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Yes | 33c | 67.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.39 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x806a…62d7backed Yes | 43c | 67.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…9fffbacked Yes | 27c | 65.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +179.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 31c | 63.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.11 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked No | 48c | 63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f61…f56fbacked No | 58c | 61.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 37c | 54.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked No | 26c | 45.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 25c | 42.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…b4afbacked No | 75c | 34.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1412…8417backed No | 48c | 29.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab7c…746dbacked Yes | 69c | 28.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked No | 49c | 22.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs. SV 07 Elversberg end in a draw?this page
- Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-04-25?No won
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-04-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.