Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-04-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd798ca1ca6d68f66cff0bb6fd625704764c6664bfd407edbe9eecae3329eeba4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,889
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,889 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf24…15ecbacked No | 39c | 6,000$2,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,659.95 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 29c | 5,111$1,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,619.91 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 28c | 2,536$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.53 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 61c | 2,389$1,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,456.99 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 51c | 1,975$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.53 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 77c | 1,808$1,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.46 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Yes | 64c | 1,646$1,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,054.69 | 117 | 62.4%73 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 63c | 1,485$932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.69 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 61c | 991.47$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.8 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4160…e42dbacked No | 40c | 927.82$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.69 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 61c | 867.51$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.18 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 14c | 682.32$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.83 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 39c | 645.61$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.47 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 44c | 561.69$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.32 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf277…9a5fbacked Yes | 12c | 407.42$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1871…59e6backed Yes | 15c | 379.6$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.94 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 33c | 373.17$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.47 | 158 | 29.1%46 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Yes | 6c | 246$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…c744backed Yes | 30c | 244.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Yes | 5c | 209.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 32c | 203.85$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.23 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Yes | 41c | 187.93$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.05 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked No | 68c | 151.23$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -8.5wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 47c | 148.8$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.28 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x399c…6191backed Yes | 40c | 146.32$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.66 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed No | 59c | 144.64$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.79 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked No | 62c | 143.11$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.38 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Yes | 61c | 135.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.95 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8544…3d33backed Yes | 74c | 133.03$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.44 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 9c | 124$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…0303backed Yes | 73c | 121.67$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.82 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 30c | 109$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Yes | 56c | 107.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.53 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 22c | 105$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35ac…0c64backed Yes | 46c | 76.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…6941backed Yes | 62c | 75.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +9.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0796…8264backed Yes | 75c | 72.23$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.18 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x007c…3b2fbacked Yes | 34c | 61.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Yes | 61c | 59.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Yes | 61c | 58.56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 32c | 51.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39f6…abe1backed Yes | 52c | 50.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 67c | 50.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Yes | 61c | 42.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 58c | 29.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe87…6fc0backed No | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…5198backed Yes | 51c | 20.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee92…7ec3backed Yes | 62c | 19.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed Yes | 61c | 19.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-04-25?this page
- Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-04-25?No won
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs. SV 07 Elversberg end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.