Bundesliga · resolved market

Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-04-25?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9313d4a9f508e9b8681c5db0ae3fc26eca29f018fadef6e7797dc749ed7ecd19

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 25, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $27,534
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $26,896

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,534 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xbe87…6fc0backed No	60c	4,088$2,435 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,653.15	37	56.8%21 W · 16 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes	40c	2,635$1,056 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,055.9	2,538	39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L	-8.1wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc686…5a55backed Yes	51c	1,332$679 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$679.42	241	32%77 W · 164 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed No	61c	1,160$702 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$458.07	640	43.9%281 W · 359 L	-9.7wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4160…e42dbacked Yes	12c	999.99$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	27	29.6%8 W · 19 L	+2.0wins	+0.07per pick	22cpaid	+26.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6945…873dbacked No	60c	976$586 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$390.4	61	49.2%30 W · 31 L	-5.3wins	-0.09per pick	58cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6bb8…a6fabacked No	60c	813.86$488 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$325.88	74	58.1%43 W · 31 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	65cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc551…fa51backed No	16c	783.47$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$657.4	62	64.5%40 W · 22 L	+7.2wins	+0.12per pick	53cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x660d…56acbacked Yes	43c	767.43$330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$329.99	90	43.3%39 W · 51 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33a7…e607backed Yes	43c	677.9$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$289.69	64	35.9%23 W · 41 L	-7.6wins	-0.12per pick	48cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed No	57c	600.51$342 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$258.22	84	48.8%41 W · 43 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e07…80d1backed Yes	37c	520.39$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.44	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.4wins	-0.15per pick	49cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8519…f4e1backed Yes	31c	499.1$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.33	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed Yes	43c	450.96$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.14	240	50.4%121 W · 119 L	+18.5wins	+0.08per pick	43cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9531…18ffbacked Yes	47c	412$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.64	24	33.3%8 W · 16 L	-2.1wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No	44c	401.98$178 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$224.19	82	24.4%20 W · 62 L	-6.7wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x35ac…0c64backed Yes	9c	366.07$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.42	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf277…9a5fbacked Yes	43c	336.91$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.87	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-2.6wins	-0.16per pick	60cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x20dc…f74cbacked Yes	46c	336.56$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.82	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	34cpaid	+20.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed No	44c	330.02$147 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$183.46	817	32.8%268 W · 549 L	-11.2wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed No	74c	326.68$241 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.53	435	32.2%140 W · 295 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed Yes	42c	229.97$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.52	175	49.1%86 W · 89 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f3…999fbacked Yes	43c	200$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	115	39.1%45 W · 70 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Yes	33c	189.3$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.28	93	54.8%51 W · 42 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed No	41c	179.12$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106.06	407	44.5%181 W · 226 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x415c…d51ebacked Yes	41c	174.1$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.38	5	40%2 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe706…89bcbacked No	58c	169.95$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.38	118	43.2%51 W · 67 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed No	58c	162.92$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.14	1,083	50.8%550 W · 533 L	+8.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd876…4c8bbacked Yes	33c	161.86$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.53	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	-3.1wins	-0.16per pick	21cpaid	-76.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes	35c	150.61$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.21	238	42.9%102 W · 136 L	+2.7wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98d8…de5ebacked Yes	42c	141.83$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.57	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes	42c	137.07$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.57	496	47.4%235 W · 261 L	+2.0wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa05b…deb0backed No	58c	133.61$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.12	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.17per pick	67cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8796…c744backed No	57c	130.99$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.33	24	25%6 W · 18 L	-3.1wins	-0.13per pick	38cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf38c…d9f2backed Yes	40c	127.58$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.88	117	48.7%57 W · 60 L	-3.8wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes	41c	126.68$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.94	59	44.1%26 W · 33 L	-2.4wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No	58c	120.85$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.76	1,681	45.2%759 W · 922 L	+6.8wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes	71c	115$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.65	35	51.4%18 W · 17 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No	53c	105.94$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.91	3,284	42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L	-74.0wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed No	60c	103.97$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.33	275	54.9%151 W · 124 L	+3.6wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Yes	41c	99.99$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	36	38.9%14 W · 22 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7203…795abacked No	59c	98.34$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.32	65	64.6%42 W · 23 L	+4.8wins	+0.07per pick	57cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Yes	29c	97.82$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.14	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked No	60c	97.6$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.04	135	55.6%75 W · 60 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed No	57c	92.39$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.58	245	41.6%102 W · 143 L	-5.0wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-14%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6aa1…a420backed Yes	54c	90.02$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.61	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	-4.7wins	-0.16per pick	33cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes	48c	87.13$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.67	204	36.3%74 W · 130 L	-5.5wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-13%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fba…fb15backed Yes	64c	82.39$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.7	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	67cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Yes	26c	76.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.02	288	22.6%65 W · 223 L	-11.1wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Yes	34c	75.83$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.78	395	58.7%232 W · 163 L	+27.4wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1e9b…829ebacked Yes	58c	73.95$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.89	60	53.3%32 W · 28 L	+4.9wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf05b…3c59backed Yes	53c	73.34$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.87	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.11per pick	48cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e1…0dbdbacked Yes	42c	71.56$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.97	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	+2.7wins	+0.13per pick	30cpaid	+30%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x294e…4982backed Yes	45c	64.14$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.86	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Yes	41c	63.63$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.09	152	44.1%67 W · 85 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0178…3f7abacked Yes	72c	60$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.2	52	46.2%24 W · 28 L	-3.4wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked Yes	29c	55.52$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.16	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-5.4wins	-0.13per pick	25cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Yes	46c	52.27$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.04	511	36.8%188 W · 323 L	-28.0wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9079…b19bbacked Yes	42c	44.15$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.5	56	53.6%30 W · 26 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No	53c	44.06$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.51	1,355	50.9%690 W · 665 L	+12.7wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c56…0615backed No	56c	43.46$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.12	62	45.2%28 W · 34 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x903a…316bbacked Yes	34c	42.37$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.41	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x35d1…1f70backed Yes	50c	39.16$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.4	53	50.9%27 W · 26 L	-2.8wins	-0.05per pick	56cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked No	58c	39$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.38	569	51.8%295 W · 274 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed No	57c	38.56$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.48	68	54.4%37 W · 31 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes	33c	36.04$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.93	491	43.2%212 W · 279 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+22.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x007c…3b2fbacked Yes	54c	36.01$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.45	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Yes	63c	33.44$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.17	106	47.2%50 W · 56 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb82b…bb76backed No	61c	32.88$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.81	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-3.9wins	-0.18per pick	32cpaid	-68.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Yes	58c	32.62$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.92	59	55.9%33 W · 26 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c3e…f079backed Yes	32c	31.25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06a5…5b4ebacked No	60c	24$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.6	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.47per pick	53cpaid	+92%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f02…8af6backed No	59c	21.92$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.99	5	100%5 W · 0 L	+1.9wins	+0.38per pick	62cpaid	+67.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0576…9d28backed No	58c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.4	16	81.3%13 W · 3 L	+2.7wins	+0.17per pick	64cpaid	+24.7%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked No	58c	19.84$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.34	178	52.8%94 W · 84 L	-5.7wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked No	57c	18.51$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.96	150	48%72 W · 78 L	-6.3wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90c8…4573backed Yes	67c	15.67$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.55	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.26per pick	59cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-04-25?this page
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs. SV 07 Elversberg end in a draw?Yes won
Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-04-25?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-04-25?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event