Premier League · resolved market
Derby County FC vs. Wrexham AFC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbc91caaf24eb9ed22544693fe6e60c6f97b508803d409af5205c9d39014090f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,893
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,893 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7104…afefbacked Over | 66c | 1,508$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.53 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 36c | 1,088$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.33 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 34c | 489.9$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.24 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Over | 60c | 427$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.8 | 138 | 60.1%83 W · 55 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 33c | 366.68$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.45 | 4,768 | 41.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Under | 36c | 165$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…f244backed Under | 36c | 141$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.76 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…1fb3backed Under | 32c | 111$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 33c | 108$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 1,938 | 42.5%823 W · 1,115 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 67c | 79$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 201 | 50.2%101 W · 100 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 68c | 57.05$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 584 | 45.9%268 W · 316 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Under | 36c | 51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd411…e342backed Over | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa46…1559backed Over | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -5.1wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e29…c992backed Over | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14cd…1716backed Over | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede6…89c4backed Over | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51e5…9fcabacked Over | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdb…ae41backed Over | 64c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e57…41f0backed Over | 64c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 62cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60ee…f2d4backed Over | 68c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd17…77fdbacked Over | 64c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07eb…4b4cbacked Over | 68c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb75…bc16backed Over | 64c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…0c60backed Over | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf2…6640backed Over | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 410 | 40.5%166 W · 244 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Derby County FC vs. Wrexham AFC: O/U 1.5this page
- Derby County FC vs. Wrexham AFC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Derby County FC vs. Wrexham AFC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Derby County FC vs. Wrexham AFC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Derby County FC vs. Wrexham AFC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Derby County FC (-1.5)Wrexham AFC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.