Premier League · resolved market
Derby County FC vs. Wrexham AFC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x300ade4d0a9cffa5160d134e10bbc496d61c5fa3460889b03f8f4f1c3897bc94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,685
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,773
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,685 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe76f…39fcbacked Under | 53c | 1,878$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.63 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 47c | 1,098$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.73 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 75c | 537.04$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.66 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 476.28$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.09 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…22cfbacked Over | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 114 | 48.2%55 W · 59 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc44…3b40backed Over | 48c | 299.95$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.98 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 79c | 130$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 233 | 53.6%125 W · 108 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Over | 18c | 108$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 30c | 107.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 46c | 86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 67c | 77.61$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf9…1abfbacked Over | 18c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed Over | 18c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 79c | 71.53$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 201 | 50.2%101 W · 100 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Over | 21c | 63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 54c | 60.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 891 | 52.9%471 W · 420 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 410 | 40.5%166 W · 244 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa7…2e3cbacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9874…15d7backed Under | 79c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 66c | 28.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 584 | 45.9%268 W · 316 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 66c | 20.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 577 | 44.4%256 W · 321 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72df…42f6backed Under | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x749b…48d8backed Under | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 56cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Derby County FC vs. Wrexham AFC: O/U 3.5this page
- Derby County FC vs. Wrexham AFC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Derby County FC vs. Wrexham AFC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Derby County FC vs. Wrexham AFC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Derby County FC vs. Wrexham AFC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Derby County FC (-1.5)Wrexham AFC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.