Mls · resolved market
Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbdb0bfac3b72a735f1f6ee9767e445042417c0c4af17e98a65a8905d8ba988b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Jose Earthquakesof San Jose Earthquakes, Austin FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,244
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,289
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,244 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Austin FC | 59c | 991.93$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.24 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed San Jose Earthquakes | 43c | 906.81$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.59 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked San Jose Earthquakes | 41c | 643.04$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.56 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4a…e7cabacked Austin FC | 58c | 504.21$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.44 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Austin FC | 59c | 495.97$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.62 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Austin FC | 57c | 458.55$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.38 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Jose Earthquakes | 41c | 415.24$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.13 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Austin FC | 58c | 237.86$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.14 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked San Jose Earthquakes | 41c | 189.35$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.72 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed San Jose Earthquakes | 39c | 166.77$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.51 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked San Jose Earthquakes | 43c | 133.01$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.15 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2062…6be2backed San Jose Earthquakes | 49c | 99.44$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.97 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed San Jose Earthquakes | 27c | 95.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.14 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Austin FC | 51c | 89.37$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.41 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Austin FC | 56c | 79.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked San Jose Earthquakes | 36c | 78.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.18 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa8…a410backed San Jose Earthquakes | 44c | 76.87$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Austin FC | 58c | 76.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.27 | 186 | 55.4%103 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Austin FC | 61c | 57.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6a…8bbcbacked San Jose Earthquakes | 42c | 52.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked San Jose Earthquakes | 42c | 38.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed San Jose Earthquakes | 44c | 38.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Austin FC | 69c | 28.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Austin FC | 66c | 28.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed San Jose Earthquakes | 43c | 27.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Austin FC | 59c | 19.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5)this page
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Austin FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Austin FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Austin FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Austin FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Austin FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Austin FC (-2.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.