Mls · resolved market
San Jose Earthquakes vs. Austin FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b7526b775a7a1e589b93713558d86f50934f994706d8e73cf8cf1e1271999d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,284
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,022
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,284 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 1,776$1,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,132.9 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 35c | 1,413$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.13 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 41c | 1,010$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.08 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +20.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +40%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 44c | 991.24$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.53 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 60c | 822.02$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.21 | 215 | 47.9%103 W · 112 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 40c | 723$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.8 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 60c | 628.88$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.15 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Under | 52c | 544.5$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over | 80c | 541.2$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.02 | 189 | 67.2%127 W · 62 L | +21.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 39c | 392.1$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.18 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…32c9backed Over | 40c | 371.01$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.56 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 26c | 367.72$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.16 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fb…610cbacked Under | 60c | 305.89$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.18 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 73c | 295.14$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.45 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x456e…968bbacked Over | 32c | 291.85$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 19c | 290.68$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.23 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 60c | 277.91$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.42 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 41c | 267.39$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.76 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 70c | 263.74$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.88 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…6e5bbacked Under | 66c | 263.35$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.37 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044e…28d3backed Under | 80c | 237.12$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 41c | 235.52$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.06 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e8…5169backed Under | 45c | 215.41$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 60c | 208.16$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.23 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 50c | 174.27$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.11 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 45c | 117.54$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.89 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 60c | 115.41$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.27 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 46c | 102.1$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.13 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 40c | 96.78$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.22 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +12.0wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +83%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa469…42a7backed Over | 46c | 96.76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 60c | 96.75$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.03 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…20bfbacked Under | 66c | 88.94$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.78 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12f1…3d14backed Over | 59c | 80.51$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 55c | 76.26$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 60c | 72.39$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 37c | 72.15$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.7 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Under | 46c | 70.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 60c | 61.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 40c | 60.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.27 | 84 | 65.5%55 W · 29 L | +16.4wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Over | 40c | 60.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +10.7wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 66c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 44c | 55.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 55c | 52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01db…ef1abacked Over | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Over | 49c | 49.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…8568backed Under | 60c | 49.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 40c | 48.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 55c | 45.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Over | 25c | 41.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 40c | 36.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 39c | 35.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 45c | 34.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 63c | 31.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 39c | 27.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 76c | 27.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -11.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d1…6c90backed Under | 73c | 26.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe465…c45cbacked Under | 73c | 25.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef92…f133backed Under | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 59c | 21.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | -11.4wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 76c | 18.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 76c | 18.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 76c | 18.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 76c | 18.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Under | 62c | 17.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 73c | 16.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce3…1a0dbacked Under | 62c | 16.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Austin FC: O/U 3.5this page
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Austin FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Austin FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Austin FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Austin FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Austin FC (-2.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.