Mls · resolved market
San Jose Earthquakes vs. Austin FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab9b4508f8b61442509e2d5f6d0b8eca60841927113f2eb1462a1595083503aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,963
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 4,866$2,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,160.11 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2efa…8a01backed Over | 62c | 2,404$1,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…4ddbbacked Over | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.97 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 32c | 1,572$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.9 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 55c | 1,440$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.98 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 47c | 999.95$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.97 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 56c | 892.96$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.9 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 38c | 889.52$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.02 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 38c | 714.57$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.36 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Over | 63c | 586.68$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.07 | 76 | 68.4%52 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…32c9backed Over | 62c | 466.53$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.28 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 37c | 454.93$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.34 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 45c | 430.02$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.85 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 38c | 411.01$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.53 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dde…2c06backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 37c | 362.71$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.77 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…6e5bbacked Over | 48c | 357.25$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.77 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 38c | 321.99$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.32 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 65c | 318.33$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.78 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 58c | 299.9$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.88 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc621…7c5cbacked Under | 44c | 274.55$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 57c | 272.54$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.01 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 76c | 264.38$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.24 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 22c | 238.36$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.74 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 43c | 234.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.29 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 23c | 218.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 45c | 214.87$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.69 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…e01bbacked Over | 48c | 201.83$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa469…42a7backed Over | 74c | 199.99$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 49c | 199.36$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.91 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf00e…00f4backed Over | 62c | 198.51$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…93cebacked Under | 45c | 193.4$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.03 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 59c | 174.27$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.29 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +20.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +40%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 62c | 160.3$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.89 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe720…0f1cbacked Over | 62c | 157.61$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.89 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 53c | 152.72$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.38 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 62c | 150.49$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.54 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 42c | 140.84$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.09 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 19c | 126.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 76c | 118.9$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…41d1backed Under | 44c | 116.81$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x503a…1e89backed Under | 46c | 111.11$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.11 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 45c | 107.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.34 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Under | 47c | 103.29$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.43 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 38c | 101.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 63c | 99.33$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a8…daabbacked Over | 62c | 94.95$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.33 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -6.2wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -38%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 45c | 89.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed Under | 44c | 87.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 62c | 86.59$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 84 | 65.5%55 W · 29 L | +16.4wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Over | 63c | 85.54$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +10.7wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc92d…9691backed Over | 61c | 82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 61c | 74.72$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc766…1533backed Under | 39c | 74.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 37c | 73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…8568backed Under | 34c | 66.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 63c | 63.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +12.0wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +83%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 67c | 61.91$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 38c | 59.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 27c | 59.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Under | 38c | 58.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 58c | 50.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 37c | 49.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 38c | 48.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 73c | 43.57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a65…3340backed Over | 51c | 41.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…8ffabacked Under | 45c | 40.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked Over | 60c | 39.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 59c | 39.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 61c | 39.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 63c | 35.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 67c | 35.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 156 | 76.9%120 W · 36 L | +32.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 37c | 31.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dd…69ddbacked Under | 48c | 31.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 40c | 27.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab35…118dbacked Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 63c | 19.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Austin FC: O/U 2.5this page
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Austin FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Austin FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Austin FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Austin FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Austin FC (-2.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.