Mls · resolved market
San Jose Earthquakes vs. Austin FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1697b67cb839373363eda1437d56fe99b8de1db803e941fa65031310c711858f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,829
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 77c | 1,672$1,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,294.11 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 1,125$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.49 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 23c | 994.89$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.07 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 22c | 753.77$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.94 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 79c | 618.72$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.44 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 35c | 551.67$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.49 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 22c | 433.27$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.95 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 79c | 397.08$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.88 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 22c | 330.86$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.16 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 9c | 300$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x981f…cf4fbacked Under | 78c | 299.99$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 24c | 190.6$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.86 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 22c | 155.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.66 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 22c | 129.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.39 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +12.0wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +83%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 22c | 118.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.09 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Over | 25c | 111.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.52 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +4.6wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +156.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 25c | 99.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.63 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 12c | 96.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.33 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +20.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +40%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 28c | 89.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.2 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 78c | 86$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.65 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 22c | 64.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.69 | 84 | 65.5%55 W · 29 L | +16.4wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Over | 22c | 64.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.69 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +10.7wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 78c | 55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 79c | 41.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 79c | 41.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…86dbbacked Under | 80c | 36.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 78c | 25.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 78c | 25.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 78c | 22.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 47c | 21.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Austin FC: O/U 4.5this page
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Austin FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Austin FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Austin FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Austin FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Austin FC (-2.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.