Tennis · resolved market
Brisbane International: McCartney Kessler vs Madison Keys
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbe41184eb8b9c4f32339e6e97244e9f2a5e6a97c5508ca644eb75dfec409f65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Keysof Kessler, Keys
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,366
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f78…bfcabacked Kessler | 0c | 12,168$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 87 | 13.8%12 W · 75 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3e…bcf8backed Kessler | 40c | 5,608$2,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,251.84 | 761 | 46.6%355 W · 406 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x046c…2a9cbacked Kessler | 43c | 2,208$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$942.03 | 352 | 47.2%166 W · 186 L | -23.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Keys | 61c | 1,937$1,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.62 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Kessler | 1c | 1,067$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Keys | 58c | 999.99$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 227 | 37.4%85 W · 142 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad15…ee7fbacked Keys | 60c | 918.64$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.64 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Kessler | 41c | 898.85$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.81 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Keys | 56c | 590.5$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.82 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Kessler | 3c | 578.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Keys | 61c | 507.02$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.14 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…c53ebacked Keys | 57c | 499.99$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.99 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Keys | 60c | 423.72$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.77 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9332…280ebacked Kessler | 36c | 400$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 71 | 22.5%16 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ede…d6a7backed Keys | 73c | 385$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.97 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Kessler | 41c | 368$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.88 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Kessler | 40c | 320$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.6 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7163…3601backed Keys | 56c | 260.01$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.6 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Keys | 77c | 239.28$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.47 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…6f9abacked Kessler | 42c | 229.98$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.59 | 930 | 55.8%519 W · 411 L | +23.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Kessler | 25c | 222.05$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.45 | 281 | 39.1%110 W · 171 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Keys | 60c | 215.03$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.91 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82a…a759backed Kessler | 39c | 212.93$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.72 | 339 | 55.2%187 W · 152 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…22eabacked Kessler | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Keys | 67c | 180.78$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.91 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Keys | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +5.4wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Kessler | 28c | 165$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 222 | 36.9%82 W · 140 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d78…a4ccbacked Keys | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 330 | 55.8%184 W · 146 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Keys | 58c | 163$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.46 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Keys | 59c | 152.55$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.55 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Kessler | 28c | 120$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 593 | 48.9%290 W · 303 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x788f…8c1ebacked Kessler | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 184 | 60.3%111 W · 73 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8985…2e25backed Keys | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4291…b6bdbacked Keys | 61c | 97.2$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Keys | 57c | 82$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ed…04cbbacked Keys | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Kessler | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -6.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Kessler | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Kessler | 20c | 56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…76bcbacked Kessler | 42c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…753bbacked Keys | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 191 | 29.8%57 W · 134 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…0e16backed Kessler | 43c | 46.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed Keys | 56c | 43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x934a…9096backed Kessler | 42c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Keys | 78c | 38.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe09e…5047backed Kessler | 39c | 36.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7616…69eebacked Keys | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe901…3139backed Keys | 59c | 33.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 238 | 32.4%77 W · 161 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182f…87d2backed Keys | 61c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 53 | 69.8%37 W · 16 L | +6.3wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Keys | 61c | 30.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Keys | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 749 | 61.8%463 W · 286 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…1969backed Kessler | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2877…dc5bbacked Kessler | 42c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb11a…023cbacked Keys | 79c | 27.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6966…409bbacked Kessler | 44c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Keys | 66c | 24.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Keys | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef5e…4c1dbacked Keys | 69c | 15.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.