Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Marozsan vs Arnaldi
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbe8b6ddb91adbcadc11a66a5075089180af9d3bf2dac6afbc6de29ee82418ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arnaldiof Marozsan, Arnaldi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,108
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,256
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,108 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Marozsan | 59c | 3,835$2,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,279.92 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Arnaldi | 39c | 2,000$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,213.11 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x928d…5069backed Arnaldi | 47c | 1,063$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +44%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Arnaldi | 59c | 412.21$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.9 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…3f90backed Marozsan | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Arnaldi | 34c | 200$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…1066backed Arnaldi | 76c | 167.01$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.08 | 443 | 49%217 W · 226 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55a8…e802backed Arnaldi | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 363 | 42.1%153 W · 210 L | -16.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Arnaldi | 70c | 132$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.16 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Arnaldi | 41c | 120$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.8 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Arnaldi | 79c | 110.18$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Marozsan | 43c | 107.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.34 | 950 | 50.1%476 W · 474 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Marozsan | 27c | 74.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Arnaldi | 53c | 59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 637 | 46%293 W · 344 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831f…cc50backed Marozsan | 44c | 55.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 218 | 41.3%90 W · 128 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked Marozsan | 49c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 519 | 42.6%221 W · 298 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Arnaldi | 47c | 41.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Marozsan vs Arnaldithis page
- National Bank Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Matteo ArnaldiMatteo Arnaldi won
- Set 2 Winner: Marozsan vs ArnaldiMarozsan won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.