Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 68°F or higher on April 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc137cc03f54fd0f41b3443e471ce3d35c25605242895d2ff0d00f45cea024ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,902
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,902 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d85…6008backed Yes | 1c | 3,082$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 68c | 823.98$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.77 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 75c | 746.96$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.91 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 31c | 707.23$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.74 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 25c | 502.87$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.32 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 33c | 470.57$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.77 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 399.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 339.42$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…e8f2backed Yes | 15c | 304.31$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.65 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85f4…b3b0backed Yes | 32c | 302.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.84 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 38c | 299.99$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 259.47$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 70c | 248.76$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.72 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 24c | 230.74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.47 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1c…5b1cbacked No | 71c | 196.62$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 24c | 175.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 32c | 152.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.43 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b66…db0abacked Yes | 28c | 109.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 72c | 109.08$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 104.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…be1dbacked Yes | 46c | 103.08$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.29 | 82 | 18.3%15 W · 67 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 35c | 100.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99b7…177fbacked Yes | 27c | 93.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc969…0377backed Yes | 11c | 92.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 85 | 12.9%11 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 77.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 71.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 78c | 66.88$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 36c | 66.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 66.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes | 21c | 57.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 30c | 54.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 76c | 52.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 28c | 49.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed Yes | 39c | 47.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed Yes | 43c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 33c | 44.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b1…c4d3backed Yes | 27c | 43.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +90%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 69c | 43.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 38c | 36.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…132ebacked No | 56c | 35.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…577dbacked No | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3742…b912backed Yes | 52c | 29.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -40%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed No | 70c | 28.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x245e…eab4backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 85 | 74.1%63 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 77cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc1…99e6backed No | 80c | 24.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 69cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed Yes | 42c | 23.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x322a…096fbacked No | 61c | 23.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…7d89backed No | 67c | 20.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07a…f97abacked No | 67c | 16.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 127 | 17.3%22 W · 105 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 61c | 16.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 68°F or higher on April 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on April 29?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.