NHL · resolved market
Islanders vs. Blues: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc29d392870331f66cdcba29ebd786fcba69cd9ab8a15184a3a134cc9b514f7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,900 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Over | 51c | 2,367$1,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160.06 | 255 | 52.5%134 W · 121 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 49c | 2,161$1,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,059.05 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b90…2194backed Over | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980.08 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 1,994$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.94 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cac…1695backed Under | 39c | 1,500$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 69c | 900$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 48c | 628.23$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.9 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 51c | 342.88$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.38 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Under | 49c | 244$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.8 | 156 | 51.3%80 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…d87bbacked Under | 49c | 139.97$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.73 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 49c | 82.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Over | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 31c | 72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 49c | 59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…7ac4backed Under | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 53c | 46.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ba…d369backed Over | 50c | 20.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 50c | 20.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 355 | 53%188 W · 167 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Islanders vs. Blues: O/U 5.5this page
- Islanders vs. BluesIslanders won
- Islanders vs. Blues: O/U 4.5Over won
- Islanders vs. Blues: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Islanders (-1.5)Blues won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.