Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nix Team vs Stray Team - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc2bf6d89cebab6ddff77da6b87946b109d623b5769306ea4a2ae8b7179fe257
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nix Teamof Nix Team, Stray Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,661
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,374
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,661 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f30…8df6backed Stray Team | 49c | 1,871$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.11 | 165 | 55.2%91 W · 74 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked Nix Team | 61c | 1,120$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.65 | 540 | 58.9%318 W · 222 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Nix Team | 53c | 1,047$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.07 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed Stray Team | 5c | 324.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed Stray Team | 38c | 239.47$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 189 | 54%102 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…c986backed Stray Team | 42c | 220.09$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.66 | 390 | 42.1%164 W · 226 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…57bbbacked Nix Team | 76c | 220$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 418 | 64.1%268 W · 150 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…86e1backed Stray Team | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 242 | 44.6%108 W · 134 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed Nix Team | 52c | 216.48$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.01 | 520 | 46.5%242 W · 278 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked Stray Team | 35c | 123$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd0…c747backed Stray Team | 29c | 114.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28dd…f376backed Stray Team | 31c | 101.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Stray Team | 27c | 101.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74d7…9bbebacked Nix Team | 75c | 73.67$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e5…c8d1backed Stray Team | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x614b…ca37backed Nix Team | 72c | 69.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 134 | 59.7%80 W · 54 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…85c6backed Nix Team | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 293 | 47.4%139 W · 154 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Nix Team | 59c | 67.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…7401backed Nix Team | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 354 | 30.5%108 W · 246 L | -27.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Nix Team | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…795abacked Nix Team | 58c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 283 | 36.4%103 W · 180 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Stray Team | 38c | 36.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c82…5a52backed Nix Team | 71c | 26.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 234 | 59%138 W · 96 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…fb60backed Nix Team | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 504 | 44%222 W · 282 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nix Team vs Stray Team - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Nix Team vs Stray Team (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battle Group ANix Team won
- Dota 2: Nix Team vs Stray Team - Game 1 WinnerStray Team won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.