Bundesliga · resolved market
Karlsruher SC vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc38e1d11fdecfae5bbd42324da4b9271be21dd443f72446668c6171dc656dfb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,808
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,808 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 44c | 11,000$4,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,869.93 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x036c…178dbacked Over | 55c | 10,771$5,924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,847.09 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 44c | 2,011$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891.78 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over | 56c | 980.77$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.77 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 43c | 846.1$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.61 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 817.98$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.86 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 56c | 800$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 56c | 700$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x533c…eb85backed Under | 42c | 671.57$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 57c | 631.58$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.58 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a4…f0c0backed Over | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8b…8925backed Over | 58c | 246.64$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 47cpaid | +129.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3a…4d28backed Over | 58c | 236.19$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Over | 57c | 219.3$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.3 | 176 | 52.3%92 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41a6…f2e3backed Over | 58c | 203.29$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Under | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Over | 57c | 163$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.09 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Under | 45c | 140$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -9.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 56c | 133.93$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 43c | 125$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 74c | 101.11$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 130 | 73.1%95 W · 35 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 43c | 94.3$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +5.5wins | +0.29per pick | 34cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Under | 43c | 87.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Under | 45c | 62.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 44c | 42.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x891f…88bfbacked Over | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ec…aeaabacked Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 45c | 32.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Over | 56c | 31.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5142…ee20backed Over | 57c | 29.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Under | 45c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 44c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Karlsruher SC vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 2.5this page
- Karlsruher SC vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Karlsruher SC vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 1.5Over won
- Karlsruher SC vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 3.5Over won
- Karlsruher SC vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Karlsruher SC (-2.5)SG Dynamo Dresden won
- Spread: SG Dynamo Dresden (-1.5)Karlsruher SC won
- Spread: SG Dynamo Dresden (-2.5)Karlsruher SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.