South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Botafogo FR win on 2025-11-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc5983232ff5e01ecbf281f8696c879a18c681880e428b4faf548e3de3ae0260
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,432
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 5c | 1,161$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.92 | 181 | 29.8%54 W · 127 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 12c | 1,078$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.49 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 41c | 1,059$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.99 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb52b…b156backed No | 42c | 940.01$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.81 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Yes | 60c | 834.7$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.7 | 96 | 38.5%37 W · 59 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked No | 39c | 751.9$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.24 | 138 | 21%29 W · 109 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 21c | 659.39$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.47 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 61c | 648$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.72 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 20c | 501.1$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.97 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 59c | 430.58$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.3 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdea9…be41backed Yes | 61c | 402.72$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.28 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 72c | 369.25$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.21 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 78c | 310.27$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.27 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 16c | 279.92$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.74 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 62c | 274.19$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.19 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 59c | 230$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.3 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +18.0wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…55bfbacked Yes | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8450…b5a9backed Yes | 80c | 175$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb56a…a485backed Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 58c | 125.7$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.79 | 266 | 59.8%159 W · 107 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9734…bb94backed No | 41c | 98.8$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 329 | 36.5%120 W · 209 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 41c | 57.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 61c | 49.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 119 | 59.7%71 W · 48 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 39c | 45.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 312 | 26.6%83 W · 229 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ab…44dfbacked Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8280…a6d2backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef7…ae5cbacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 54cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a40…b226backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe32c…db1bbacked No | 42c | 27.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…a925backed Yes | 59c | 23.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 59c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc284…912abacked Yes | 61c | 18.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Botafogo FR win on 2025-11-22?this page
- Will Botafogo FR vs. Grêmio FBPA end in a draw?No won
- Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2025-11-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.