South American Leagues · resolved market
Will FC Juárez win on 2025-10-24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc6d9e29fd48fc2a4fac16c072e62436da3e2d86572a269d1524977e7021b6f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,707
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,790
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,707 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 58c | 45,000$26,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,049.59 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed No | 42c | 39,259$16,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,769.94 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 43c | 5,863$2,521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,341.91 | 75 | 72%54 W · 21 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…95e2backed Yes | 0c | 4,170$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 58c | 1,726$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006.33 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa585…a793backed Yes | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x562a…b87abacked No | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…99febacked No | 44c | 700$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Yes | 57c | 600$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…b852backed No | 43c | 565$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…0c4abacked Yes | 57c | 565$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…c79abacked Yes | 3c | 513$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 39c | 373.57$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.88 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked Yes | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc648…259cbacked Yes | 57c | 300$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Yes | 57c | 300$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…6ed7backed No | 43c | 299.97$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa52e…e2c4backed Yes | 57c | 290$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…dac9backed No | 19c | 200$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 36c | 153.69$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.49 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed No | 44c | 150.03$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.61 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…4bfdbacked Yes | 62c | 122$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.64 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 42c | 92$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.06 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 58c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 516 | 54.8%283 W · 233 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa4…a1bfbacked Yes | 60c | 60.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb456…1774backed Yes | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed No | 42c | 51.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked No | 22c | 45.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17ae…ccf1backed Yes | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…e912backed Yes | 55c | 35.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…5d1bbacked Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.2wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 45c | 26.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 318 | 27%86 W · 232 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf6…9b23backed Yes | 56c | 26.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3e…1b26backed Yes | 66c | 21.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd23…8acebacked Yes | 57c | 20.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6f…1176backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd0…dff3backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9428…0c9dbacked Yes | 58c | 18.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bb…42b1backed Yes | 57c | 17.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Juárez win on 2025-10-24?this page
- Will Club Puebla win on 2025-10-24?No won
- Will FC Juárez vs. Club Puebla end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.