Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc802faaf6b770b5e3d06ce5793c3169352e4fac4ffcbdd0c9d7e3b4104a74f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $108,693
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,693 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 3c | 9,750$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.24 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 1c | 6,432$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 2c | 6,347$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.87 | 514 | 10.5%54 W · 460 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 2c | 6,207$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.95 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 14c | 4,282$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.93 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 13c | 2,903$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.47 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe089…ad3abacked Yes | 5c | 2,839$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.26 | 183 | 4.4%8 W · 175 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +235.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f6…d1d3backed Yes | 1c | 2,347$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…5d51backed Yes | 3c | 1,871$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.27 | 313 | 4.8%15 W · 298 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 1c | 1,679$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 9c | 1,649$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.94 | 316 | 24.7%78 W · 238 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 3c | 1,487$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…dcdebacked Yes | 1c | 1,365$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 212 | 22.2%47 W · 165 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 2c | 1,306$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 217 | 32.3%70 W · 147 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…57c1backed Yes | 2c | 1,234$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 217 | 6%13 W · 204 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eef…eacabacked Yes | 14c | 1,220$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.2 | 214 | 29.9%64 W · 150 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,183$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.26 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes | 10c | 1,056$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x409c…9ac8backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 121 | 24%29 W · 92 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 4c | 977.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 3c | 956.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…0190backed Yes | 2c | 866.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 78 | 20.5%16 W · 62 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes | 8c | 599.76$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.82 | 216 | 14.8%32 W · 184 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 550.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 491 | 6.7%33 W · 458 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68ff…ec42backed Yes | 2c | 541.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 3c | 508.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…5ffbbacked Yes | 8c | 395.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes | 9c | 390$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 185 | 11.4%21 W · 164 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…068abacked Yes | 6c | 376.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 329 | 17%56 W · 273 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 7c | 373.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…0e7ebacked Yes | 3c | 371.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c79…50c4backed Yes | 8c | 359.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5a…1537backed Yes | 11c | 290.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 159 | 18.9%30 W · 129 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 263.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 9c | 249.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…1cf3backed Yes | 11c | 218.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 129 | 19.4%25 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a6…9fc1backed Yes | 6c | 212.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7db…6688backed Yes | 8c | 210.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +821.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 553 | 5.6%31 W · 522 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 11c | 175$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 11c | 162.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 7c | 157.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 395 | 18.7%74 W · 321 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…5fadbacked Yes | 8c | 155.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…a070backed Yes | 9c | 137.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.