Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 92°F or higher on June 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc8b409155385eea363860046b85aacb7aaeeb32ef8d4f38f0a354c018a8c1c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,842
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,842 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 25c | 1,545$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.55 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed No | 3c | 770.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 18c | 656.5$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.52 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 80c | 613.63$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.54 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 17c | 530$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.76 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 74c | 487.99$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.27 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 22c | 309.21$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.71 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 78c | 183.97$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.37 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd1…d33cbacked Yes | 72c | 150.11$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.03 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 77c | 127.82$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 18c | 114$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 76c | 107.55$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…3975backed Yes | 73c | 101.32$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 12c | 100.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 79c | 88.79$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 82 | 15.9%13 W · 69 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 16c | 88.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 74c | 77.33$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 20c | 76.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 73c | 76$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 19c | 72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 73c | 69.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 77c | 67.5$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 73c | 67.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 24c | 66.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 28c | 62.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 80c | 62.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 74c | 44.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 79c | 36.9$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 76c | 36.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 79c | 33.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e1…77debacked Yes | 76c | 33.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 77c | 30.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 75c | 28.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked Yes | 79c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d58…8a92backed Yes | 78c | 26.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9a…10ffbacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 79c | 18.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 75c | 16.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 92°F or higher on June 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.