UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfca2185b5e1dc433a2e5e03b8f9e1a04d4d4e0e2610e7feafba3f60a1c3050b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,777
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,777 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Under | 36c | 6,008$2,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,162.88 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Over | 64c | 6,000$3,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,160 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 36c | 1,168$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.48 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 67c | 631$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.99 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 34c | 590.41$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.74 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 34c | 583$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.23 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2836…c511backed Over | 66c | 439.39$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.39 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efe…7b44backed Under | 35c | 282.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Over | 65c | 258$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.3 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Under | 35c | 115$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Under | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…9ac1backed Under | 35c | 62.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf919…9e16backed Under | 36c | 60.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…a520backed Under | 36c | 58.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4f…73a6backed Over | 65c | 37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa0…96b3backed Over | 66c | 36.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04a…7007backed Over | 66c | 36.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb7…8745backed Over | 65c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.44per pick | 60cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfe…8f24backed Under | 36c | 35.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5253…b898backed Over | 65c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…8a2dbacked Over | 65c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ac…1fefbacked Over | 66c | 30.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x457f…49a9backed Under | 36c | 29.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecf…8a08backed Over | 66c | 25.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8058…6ec8backed Over | 66c | 23.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd84f…0475backed Over | 65c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3b…bd9fbacked Over | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…bd06backed Over | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +71%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- UFC 325: Yizha vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Early Prelims)Ofli won
- Will Yizha win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.