Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcadf16c7fe65f3e883efc14637414fc68681a1ad2156c27a45078feb1cfe4bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,994
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,994 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x021a…56cbbacked Over | 53c | 16,629$8,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,859.73 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 12,833$6,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,261.84 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 47c | 4,167$1,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,218.85 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Over | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 2,660$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,360.81 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 1,013$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.09 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb1…984ebacked Over | 32c | 600$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 53c | 467.41$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.19 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 75c | 400$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Over | 70c | 160$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +9.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…49b7backed Over | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed Over | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Over | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Over | 70c | 80$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Over | 70c | 80$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | +13.5wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xacb5…d643backed Over | 75c | 80$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50ca…bfddbacked Over | 47c | 75.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb9…65bfbacked Under | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7048…13d5backed Over | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Over | 73c | 55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc088…0809backed Under | 49c | 54.69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0da9…9d56backed Over | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed Over | 70c | 31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +8.0wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +26%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…13ccbacked Under | 49c | 29.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 68.1%64 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…bc89backed Over | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Over | 73c | 17.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 112 | 81.3%91 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 1.5this page
- 1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- 1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 2.5Under won
- 1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Köln (-1.5)1. FC Union Berlin won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.