TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$182,759
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$182,780

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $182,759 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9165…5b98backed Under57c71,933$40,696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,237.241947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over45c52,182$23,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,474.521,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x869b…c625backed Under53c46,308$24,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,810.81837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-29.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Over40c16,463$6,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,538.175142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d0f…a318backed Over15c14,948$2,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,292.753119.4%6 W · 25 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-20.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under53c11,945$6,381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,564.1544749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Over43c6,395$2,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7507447.3%35 W · 39 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over44c6,305$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,800.1978248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Over51c6,180$3,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,121.62458.3%14 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+21.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under54c5,582$3,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,573.7433244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over40c5,403$2,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,146.463,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78ad…45ccbacked Over43c4,607$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed Over47c3,000$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4103762.2%23 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x021a…56cbbacked Over24c2,886$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.85616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick44cpaid-72.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over44c2,789$1,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,217.912,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Over49c2,024$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00018759.4%111 W · 76 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Over46c1,644$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.7719544.6%87 W · 108 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Over48c1,500$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72027726.4%73 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Under51c1,435$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.32142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over45c1,247$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.053158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x775e…6541backed Over46c1,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4608336.1%30 W · 53 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a9b…f4edbacked Over50c876$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4382755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over47c800$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3768764.4%56 W · 31 L+10.2wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+22.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Over46c713.1$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.9651136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e49…63f2backed Over43c700$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30115024%36 W · 114 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick26cpaid+8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacb5…d643backed Over50c700$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3505848.3%28 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa7b7…0adbbacked Over47c510$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.76154.1%33 W · 28 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+20.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Over44c500$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2208251.2%42 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Over44c457$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.0830054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16e6…dc3dbacked Over46c434.78$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Under55c250$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.59350.5%47 W · 46 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a6…c0fabacked Over50c240$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201030%3 W · 7 L-3.3wins-0.33per pick63cpaid-53.7%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x5b53…95c4backed Over23c226.09$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Over47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9422854.8%125 W · 103 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7cb1…984ebacked Over5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72a2…e265backed Over49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick60cpaid-37.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1002665.4%17 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9415454.5%84 W · 70 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x66fe…e123backed Under54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.19per pick55cpaid-32.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Over50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002638.5%10 W · 16 L-3.4wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-23.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5124…91bbbacked Over45c199.99$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$907847.4%37 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23ff…94f5backed Over50c185.42$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.71366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+45.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Over47c160$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.28864.8%57 W · 31 L+11.0wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+23.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Over47c160$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.214355.9%80 W · 63 L+9.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd628…c85dbacked Over15c157$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.271241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa35f…b58fbacked Over46c146.4$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.3410642.5%45 W · 61 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Over47c120$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.413957.6%80 W · 59 L+10.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Over47c120$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.413256.1%74 W · 58 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Over47c120$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.412162.8%76 W · 45 L+15.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+24.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over47c120$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.425659.4%152 W · 104 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over49c102$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011060%66 W · 44 L+13.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+26%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Under51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4913142%55 W · 76 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb0c…f470backed Over25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-64.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed Over47c80$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.611458.8%67 W · 47 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+18.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3f1f…f56bbacked Over47c80$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.66556.9%37 W · 28 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed Over47c80$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.613859.4%82 W · 56 L+12.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked Over47c80$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.611259.8%67 W · 45 L+11.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Over47c80$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.68461.9%52 W · 32 L+8.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Over47c80$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.612458.9%73 W · 51 L+12.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+17.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed Over47c80$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.66460.9%39 W · 25 L+6.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed Over47c80$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.610360.2%62 W · 41 L+9.7wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Over47c80$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.612757.5%73 W · 54 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Over47c80$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.612358.5%72 W · 51 L+11.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+17.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0ee5…96c2backed Over47c80$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.66959.4%41 W · 28 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Over47c80$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.612858.6%75 W · 53 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Over47c80$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.611563.5%73 W · 42 L+13.5wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+25.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Over47c69.59$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.713748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under51c60.6$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.6933340.8%136 W · 197 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1eca…576bbacked Over50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick61cpaid-53.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2aa1…dba8backed Over46c54.35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254252.4%22 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd53e…e70cbacked Over46c52.43$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.121464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f21…dc40backed Over49c40.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-44.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5fa6…03ebbacked Over46c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.41952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d61…d43cbacked Over47c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.82673.1%19 W · 7 L+4.5wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+31.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked Over47c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.86460.9%39 W · 25 L+6.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+19.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84fc…9db4backed Over47c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.812259%72 W · 50 L+11.6wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Over47c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.88261%50 W · 32 L+8.5wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1941…c47fbacked Over47c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.85957.6%34 W · 25 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7cae…bf8abacked Over47c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.86162.3%38 W · 23 L+6.4wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+20.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0c2d…2570backed Over47c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.86464.1%41 W · 23 L+8.0wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+26%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6afd…5cb1backed Over47c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.811759.8%70 W · 47 L+10.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+18.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked Over47c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.812657.9%73 W · 53 L+9.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+12.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd99e…b859backed Over50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed Over47c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.812356.9%70 W · 53 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b82…2d2abacked Over47c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.86259.7%37 W · 25 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Over47c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.813254.5%72 W · 60 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb95e…c6d6backed Over47c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.85558.2%32 W · 23 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed Over47c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.89159.3%54 W · 37 L+8.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6723…a540backed Under53c40$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.81163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x778e…ccd1backed Over47c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.89265.2%60 W · 32 L+13.8wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+32.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xddd1…2739backed Under52c38.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.461040%4 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa973…f639backed Under53c37.92$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.92666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83fc…13ccbacked Over46c33.27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.31154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over49c30.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.197541.3%31 W · 44 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under59c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.338151.4%196 W · 185 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b1f…4eebbacked Over43c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.98660.5%52 W · 34 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97c3…b479backed Over44c22.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.122218.2%4 W · 18 L-5.4wins-0.24per pick43cpaid-69%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x9eae…98a5backed Over50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109468.1%64 W · 30 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick71cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.