CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: QUA (-1.5) vs Fire Flux Esports (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcb9e52a90c32b76c68c6dc7723f447ff8a3eed0f855dbac0bcf5b7a79b83663
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fire Flux Esportsof QUAZAR, Fire Flux Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $756
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $756 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Fire Flux Esports | 68c | 243.4$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.5 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…4b22backed QUAZAR | 35c | 144.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab2a…30edbacked Fire Flux Esports | 66c | 130$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 140 | 57.9%81 W · 59 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…df1dbacked QUAZAR | 31c | 99.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed QUAZAR | 32c | 75.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 513 | 48.3%248 W · 265 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7029…1136backed QUAZAR | 32c | 74.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 213 | 51.2%109 W · 104 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed QUAZAR | 32c | 63.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed QUAZAR | 32c | 62.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Fire Flux Esports | 69c | 58.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 500 | 51.4%257 W · 243 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20f8…f1a7backed Fire Flux Esports | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6986…3369backed Fire Flux Esports | 69c | 26.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Fire Flux Esports | 69c | 26.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 347 | 50.7%176 W · 171 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Fire Flux Esports | 69c | 26.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 220 | 49.1%108 W · 112 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9444…048ebacked Fire Flux Esports | 69c | 16.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: QUA (-1.5) vs Fire Flux Esports (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Finals PlayoffsQUAZAR won
- Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 1 WinnerFire Flux Esports won
- Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 2 WinnerQUAZAR won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.