Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Arizona Wildcats vs. UCF Knights
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcba2d70316a8f0c45d67f4f330c93bb7520d267725003babf74524d0e59336f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Wildcatsof Arizona Wildcats, UCF Knights
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,122
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,185
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,122 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked UCF Knights | 9c | 5,429$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.57 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…f17dbacked UCF Knights | 3c | 2,020$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda6…925abacked UCF Knights | 13c | 1,950$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed UCF Knights | 12c | 1,376$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.01 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed UCF Knights | 21c | 1,318$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.93 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed UCF Knights | 21c | 1,267$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.81 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed UCF Knights | 13c | 1,061$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.93 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked UCF Knights | 21c | 942.38$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.9 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa82…fa08backed UCF Knights | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked UCF Knights | 17c | 899.97$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.99 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40e2…b0a7backed UCF Knights | 4c | 562.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 79 | 65.8%52 W · 27 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed UCF Knights | 4c | 529.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed Arizona Wildcats | 80c | 477$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.4 | 990 | 45.6%451 W · 539 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed UCF Knights | 12c | 403.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4f…bdc8backed UCF Knights | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f6c…576ebacked Arizona Wildcats | 31c | 210$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2c…6b78backed UCF Knights | 69c | 210$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…5c69backed UCF Knights | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -12.0wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -64%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed UCF Knights | 15c | 177.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…97b5backed UCF Knights | 19c | 160$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed UCF Knights | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 536 | 35.6%191 W · 345 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0de0…0884backed UCF Knights | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Arizona Wildcats | 79c | 114.25$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…753bbacked UCF Knights | 14c | 110.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…e861backed UCF Knights | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8277…d709backed Arizona Wildcats | 79c | 99.98$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed UCF Knights | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47ba…a503backed UCF Knights | 22c | 78.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Arizona Wildcats | 80c | 62.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Arizona Wildcats | 79c | 61.04$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed UCF Knights | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 192 | 38.5%74 W · 118 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Arizona Wildcats | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 202 | 54.5%110 W · 92 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Wildcats vs. UCF Knightsthis page
- Arizona Wildcats vs. UCF Knights: O/U 163.5Under won
- Arizona Wildcats vs. UCF Knights: O/U 166.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-10.5)UCF Knights won
- Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-9.5)UCF Knights won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.