Us Midterms · resolved market
Will a Republican win Virginia US Senate Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd17ee27498ae7f11983620f9e7377a25d94a9046dd75eaa00b8b30b600b0bef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,516
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,516 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x59fd…e030backed Yes | 6c | 10,000$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f9…fe71backed Yes | 6c | 9,827$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52e9…67c3backed Yes | 7c | 4,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd275…b79bbacked Yes | 7c | 3,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea2…358cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…fca8backed Yes | 7c | 1,381$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c51…827ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,326$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6a…e3b1backed Yes | 6c | 1,083$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 5c | 953.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x749b…cdaebacked Yes | 5c | 953.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 867$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.52 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f04…6c02backed Yes | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a60…8c52backed Yes | 7c | 599.56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7371…0ce4backed Yes | 5c | 540$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bb…4774backed Yes | 8c | 380.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5b…b95ebacked Yes | 5c | 375$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e38…a1dbbacked Yes | 15c | 333.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…0939backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17f…fb7cbacked Yes | 7c | 287.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7daa…5928backed Yes | 6c | 233.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ec…2d07backed Yes | 6c | 225$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 12c | 222$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 9c | 222$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 205$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa145…49e6backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x760b…26ecbacked Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a08…0db2backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…ebb0backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a Republican win Virginia US Senate Election?this page
- Will a Democrat win Virginia US Senate Election?Yes won
- Will a candidate from another party win Virginia US Senate Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.