MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd5b81d7d895afce8c3df55068053a0ffb95db02fd6d122195d5d3761b27f1de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Cincinnati Reds, Seattle Mariners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,957
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,957 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xddd3…dba6backed Seattle Mariners | 53c | 1,641$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.27 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 1,250$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.5 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Seattle Mariners | 52c | 787.79$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.48 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 481$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.91 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Seattle Mariners | 52c | 429$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.91 | 134 | 42.5%57 W · 77 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 299.99$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 298$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.22 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 236.05$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.94 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…98b4backed Seattle Mariners | 52c | 224.55$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.78 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca2…8688backed Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 204.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Cincinnati Reds | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,360 | 44.3%602 W · 758 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00ee…0575backed Seattle Mariners | 52c | 190.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.97 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 163.95$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.7 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5271…0f95backed Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 118$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.64 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 116.67$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 507 | 51.7%262 W · 245 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…4acabacked Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 100.27$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.85 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Seattle Mariners | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.85 | 229 | 48%110 W · 119 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc90d…e7d6backed Seattle Mariners | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Seattle Mariners | 60c | 92.6$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 78.06$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…1e5ebacked Seattle Mariners | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 66.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 351 | 37%130 W · 221 L | -17.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Seattle Mariners | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Seattle Mariners | 51c | 59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 247 | 48.6%120 W · 127 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca81…f2abbacked Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc0…8f18backed Seattle Mariners | 52c | 47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 30.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Seattle Mariners | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…e4bcbacked Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 22.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -9.2wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a2…23a0backed Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 21.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.24per pick | 67cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Seattle Mariners | 52c | 19.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Seattle Mariners | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.