Serie A · resolved market
Cagliari vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd8cded9c482bdb3dafc6deab4aadc8eed2881564f3eed2c2654f435656e70b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,679
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd70f…4e35backed Under | 62c | 1,501$925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…e912backed Over | 41c | 1,500$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 59c | 735.55$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.73 | 333 | 57.4%191 W · 142 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68d6…cfb9backed Over | 43c | 697.14$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.14 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 67c | 501.3$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.72 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…dac9backed Over | 31c | 450$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked Under | 53c | 300$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52ec…3f82backed Under | 79c | 253.68$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 30c | 252.13$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.95 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 57c | 222$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.54 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 40c | 159.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.49 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Over | 46c | 156.33$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.84 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +5.3wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +169.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Under | 59c | 153.36$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.48 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 44c | 150$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.5 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Over | 38c | 150$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 40c | 133.28$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.75 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Over | 42c | 129.43$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.07 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.11 | 156 | 48.7%76 W · 80 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 196 | 52%102 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x529a…bee2backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Over | 40c | 95.83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.51 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 86$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 39c | 83.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.21 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x883f…aad2backed Under | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57f9…9b63backed Over | 44c | 72.73$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe565…01a4backed Over | 34c | 53.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76e7…4216backed Over | 42c | 46.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f6…dc27backed Under | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 57c | 39.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 61c | 35.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…1260backed Over | 42c | 33.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e4…9d4ebacked Under | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa484…1607backed Under | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfa…7da5backed Under | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…9729backed Under | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…49aabacked Under | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4f…8921backed Under | 57c | 26.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3501…0591backed Under | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa95c…dcd3backed Over | 42c | 25.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -40%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c28…78c8backed Under | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Under | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9636…317abacked Under | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cagliari vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 2.5this page
- Cagliari vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Spread: Cagliari (-0.5)US Sassuolo Calcio won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.