College Football · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd998a7713da0eeccc9816f3877aa19444dbc76ea8264e8f6f103819c6a8f3d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michigan Stateof Minnesota, Michigan State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,117
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,117 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Minnesota | 54c | 10,360$5,627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,626.95 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Michigan State | 48c | 6,000$2,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,120 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9af…6371backed Minnesota | 54c | 5,535$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Michigan State | 47c | 4,000$1,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,120 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Michigan State | 46c | 4,000$1,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,160 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Michigan State | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Minnesota | 50c | 2,485$1,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,236.88 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Minnesota | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Michigan State | 48c | 1,667$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.84 | 176 | 55.1%97 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Michigan State | 51c | 1,292$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.06 | 276 | 48.9%135 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Michigan State | 46c | 1,167$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.47 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d7…c17bbacked Michigan State | 51c | 785.82$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.82 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Minnesota | 40c | 690$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Minnesota | 52c | 656.93$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.89 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa097…fba7backed Minnesota | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Minnesota | 53c | 284.47$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Minnesota | 53c | 250$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 134 | 32.8%44 W · 90 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Minnesota | 53c | 220$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.6 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Michigan State | 49c | 202$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.82 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5680…9305backed Michigan State | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Michigan State | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Minnesota | 50c | 119$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.92 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Michigan State | 49c | 102$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.02 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Michigan State | 50c | 98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Michigan State | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb630…eeb0backed Minnesota | 51c | 63.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a60…3f7cbacked Michigan State | 49c | 63.12$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ac…a025backed Minnesota | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…8ae4backed Michigan State | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Minnesota | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota (-3.5)this page
- Michigan State vs. MinnesotaMinnesota won
- O/U 44.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.