Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 50-51°F on February 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdb757b8ae8ea430dbd56589c6adf8cc58330704256d9424de8e689aa5f267ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $138,407
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $138,312
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $138,407 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c00…003abacked Yes | 0c | 64,916$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.83 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 65c | 209.14$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.2 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…b6a0backed Yes | 21c | 160$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x699b…01cfbacked Yes | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d4…ee17backed Yes | 24c | 143$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e72…fcc6backed No | 76c | 79$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1352…5d11backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d81…9cabbacked No | 79c | 53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785a…6521backed Yes | 24c | 49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e8…8cfcbacked No | 76c | 43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc8…fceebacked No | 76c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…6b71backed No | 79c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…47d0backed No | 79c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9abc…9126backed No | 79c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c0…6bc8backed No | 79c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b41…2f00backed No | 76c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df8…e583backed No | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c2…c122backed No | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6289…8e60backed No | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8353…cd7abacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc48d…1f85backed No | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 50-51°F on February 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 47°F or below on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 58°F or higher on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 48-49°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 52-53°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 54-55°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 56-57°F on February 26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.