Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 54-55°F on February 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae60ce9dc80247a49b4511c68f91f08906af6337aaf8aab7c5bde4e93dc69942
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,732
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,551
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,732 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfceb…37dabacked Yes | 1c | 4,773$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.97 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde32…700cbacked Yes | 60c | 1,510$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.11 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8608…7b5cbacked Yes | 36c | 1,056$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.21 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf50…fa70backed Yes | 60c | 800$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…b411backed Yes | 28c | 795.22$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.73 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1602…cbf7backed Yes | 47c | 680$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 48cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 25c | 626.77$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.03 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7e…fcdfbacked No | 48c | 500$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.25 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +14.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…3ff6backed No | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0231…45d0backed Yes | 26c | 408.1$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.42 | 121 | 24.8%30 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37b6…1f7fbacked No | 40c | 300$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 45c | 218.48$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.33 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 46c | 192.86$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.48 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2a…855ebacked Yes | 26c | 161$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 60c | 161$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.18 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Yes | 62c | 160.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | -14.8wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 20c | 125.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 23c | 94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27b0…8404backed No | 74c | 89$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…4e8bbacked Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…fee5backed No | 74c | 79$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb830…f01cbacked Yes | 26c | 78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 54c | 77.23$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.74 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3573…9ecbbacked Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…1638backed No | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb95…de6ebacked No | 65c | 58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…8d19backed Yes | 60c | 57.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe58f…32acbacked Yes | 26c | 56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77ed…5b3bbacked Yes | 26c | 54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd56…7835backed No | 61c | 53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…9a07backed Yes | 26c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x332c…14f9backed Yes | 26c | 43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fd…5e48backed Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x465a…1853backed Yes | 47c | 42.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a05…0850backed Yes | 50c | 40.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8998…51dcbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…12e6backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc248…8fa6backed Yes | 35c | 39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7623…12cdbacked Yes | 35c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb85b…5fcfbacked Yes | 39c | 36.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…540ebacked Yes | 37c | 36.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…fd40backed No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d3…bc55backed No | 74c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d63…f3a6backed Yes | 35c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb090…14c7backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb67c…06efbacked No | 74c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885a…a46cbacked Yes | 62c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed Yes | 67c | 26.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…15c1backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07bf…dd92backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3179…aacebacked Yes | 60c | 21.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f62…681bbacked Yes | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306c…3e8bbacked No | 80c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5260…7d00backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f59…87d3backed No | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc478…d38cbacked No | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0b…c0dcbacked No | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80b…b08ebacked No | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x444c…2197backed No | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf89…bdf1backed No | 65c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde98…70d9backed No | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e7…a18fbacked No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa542…d850backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb7…1643backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…4086backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…9acabacked No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bb…aeefbacked No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a2…b343backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c30…99dfbacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9399…f880backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c6…2616backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe930…6af2backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 54-55°F on February 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 47°F or below on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 58°F or higher on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 48-49°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 50-51°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 52-53°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 56-57°F on February 26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.