Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 58°F or higher on February 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5aaf2fd3dbdb3bd110bb30156a5f53a0ad930c57083fecf84ea44ae95d09de3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,948
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,948 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a7e…fcdfbacked Yes | 5c | 2,500$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.15 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +14.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4765…e69bbacked Yes | 7c | 820$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 4c | 653.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 581.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 3c | 497.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a09…49d7backed Yes | 7c | 475$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa689…4cf5backed Yes | 5c | 457.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d9…fc3fbacked Yes | 8c | 443.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…b411backed Yes | 7c | 220.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aed…3ad2backed Yes | 23c | 217$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13b5…c65ebacked No | 77c | 125$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa128…cbc9backed Yes | 23c | 104$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x388f…0ec1backed Yes | 18c | 71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4af…a627backed No | 77c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc8…fceebacked No | 77c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…9defbacked No | 77c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229f…6ea8backed No | 77c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e26…7b9ebacked No | 77c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9123…d290backed No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 58°F or higher on February 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 47°F or below on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 48-49°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 50-51°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 52-53°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 54-55°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 56-57°F on February 26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.