Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 56-57°F on February 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc290ac1b8799eda4f16251ac6fcff5ea9c161533ea72758298c451890bbbc0e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,875
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,875 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa003…ebefbacked No | 19c | 2,800$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde32…700cbacked Yes | 76c | 2,179$1,661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.27 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x56b8…4cdbbacked Yes | 31c | 1,010$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.9 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 14c | 777.38$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.08 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc363…1d0ebacked No | 69c | 700$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 76c | 640.33$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.9 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 59c | 634.81$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.22 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7e…fcdfbacked Yes | 39c | 335.21$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.38 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +14.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d9…fc3fbacked No | 10c | 332.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 4c | 322.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…ebf2backed No | 69c | 310$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacba…c87dbacked Yes | 18c | 264$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 50c | 256.82$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.31 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed Yes | 67c | 232.64$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.01 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 32c | 215.13$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.29 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6222…825fbacked No | 42c | 175.18$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82c6…2e59backed No | 68c | 171.47$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.6 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0352…451ebacked Yes | 36c | 167$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8120…e938backed Yes | 15c | 162$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +341.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5728…3951backed No | 67c | 149.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 22c | 139.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 130$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 29c | 119.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.99 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9bd…c831backed Yes | 33c | 114$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…fb6bbacked No | 64c | 94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e6…0e3abacked Yes | 15c | 93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…b411backed Yes | 35c | 90$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4178…4f03backed No | 67c | 86$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd45d…933ebacked Yes | 15c | 82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 29c | 78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.61 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8608…7b5cbacked Yes | 80c | 62.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40a…4d6ebacked No | 65c | 58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…a4aebacked No | 80c | 57$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89fd…827bbacked Yes | 20c | 52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd76…db79backed Yes | 20c | 52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ea…ad1dbacked Yes | 35c | 51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…19bbbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad1…7e8abacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x680d…17bbbacked No | 67c | 46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed Yes | 38c | 45.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1352…5d11backed No | 72c | 45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 26c | 41.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…fd40backed Yes | 39c | 41.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x238c…04f2backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…12e6backed No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe909…f4e2backed No | 65c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c41…c273backed No | 64c | 33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce2…1061backed Yes | 33c | 33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9053…2178backed No | 65c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aea…abf1backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306e…cac6backed Yes | 35c | 29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 52c | 26.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x465a…1853backed Yes | 79c | 26.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…8471backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4692…eeb7backed No | 65c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c9b…6935backed No | 73c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde75…ff20backed No | 66c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00d7…6b2abacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e1…2589backed No | 80c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 56-57°F on February 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 47°F or below on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 58°F or higher on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 48-49°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 50-51°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 52-53°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 54-55°F on February 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.