NHL · resolved market
Spread: Panthers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdc2a57a0b09cccba8fca385d7ed3b20b2c2a6138471e445da6d283bda5e0b35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Panthersof Panthers, Capitals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,178
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,632
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,178 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2885…486cbacked Panthers | 32c | 999.99$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Capitals | 68c | 965.73$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.7 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Panthers | 34c | 723$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.46 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Capitals | 66c | 627.52$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.16 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Panthers | 30c | 468.75$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.13 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Panthers | 30c | 400$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Capitals | 66c | 252.88$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.9 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Panthers | 22c | 243.97$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.44 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Capitals | 70c | 225.18$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.08 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…237dbacked Panthers | 47c | 153.19$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.19 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Capitals | 69c | 151.43$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Capitals | 69c | 145.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Panthers | 30c | 122.29$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.6 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Capitals | 67c | 103.23$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.16 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76ed…fa48backed Panthers | 31c | 100.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.2 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +7.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Panthers | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Capitals | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 312 | 57.4%179 W · 133 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Panthers | 31c | 80.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.13 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Panthers | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Panthers | 31c | 49.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.37 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72e4…0369backed Capitals | 66c | 44.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5384…7408backed Panthers | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Capitals | 69c | 30.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Capitals | 69c | 20.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Panthers (-1.5)this page
- Capitals vs. PanthersPanthers won
- Capitals vs. Panthers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Capitals vs. Panthers: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.