NHL · resolved market
Capitals vs. Panthers: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64dbd9f95a93efd2701262f7bf3c4956b2acad3b7b15a508e937a15f2bb636a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,264
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,363
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,264 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 46c | 16,523$7,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,548.27 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x106b…4e8bbacked Over | 54c | 10,651$5,751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,899.35 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -7.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 54c | 4,870$2,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,234.01 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 55c | 4,364$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,963.69 | 168 | 43.5%73 W · 95 L | -14.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,439.98 | 236 | 42.8%101 W · 135 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Under | 47c | 1,107$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.33 | 566 | 49.5%280 W · 286 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Over | 52c | 1,006$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.8 | 201 | 47.8%96 W · 105 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 45c | 1,003$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.13 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbce5…02f1backed Over | 55c | 882.22$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 46c | 700$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Over | 54c | 647.54$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 139 | 52.5%73 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…6711backed Over | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.45 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Under | 47c | 499.99$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 126 | 48.4%61 W · 65 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 46c | 444$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.24 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2885…486cbacked Under | 45c | 417.82$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.02 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 55c | 375$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.75 | 384 | 45.8%176 W · 208 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 52c | 261.5$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.82 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 255.5$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.25 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8f…d7e3backed Under | 48c | 124.79$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 47c | 112$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.64 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Under | 47c | 106$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 52c | 102$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 48c | 98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 44c | 86.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 73.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Over | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 432 | 56.5%244 W · 188 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 47c | 56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 53c | 53.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2f…3531backed Over | 57c | 46.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50c1…6c6cbacked Under | 46c | 43.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 137 | 43.1%59 W · 78 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46a0…f721backed Over | 55c | 36.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4161…272dbacked Over | 55c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Under | 46c | 30.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c17…0458backed Over | 53c | 30.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7590…d6e0backed Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…c0efbacked Over | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Capitals vs. Panthers: O/U 5.5this page
- Capitals vs. PanthersPanthers won
- Capitals vs. Panthers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Panthers (-1.5)Panthers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.