Tennis · resolved market
ITF Tokyo: Matthew Dellavedova vs Koki Matsuda
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfde7fa8c3959fbdd7ece9084babbb08ea65f9e54e8bcb02b75c0b8499e4fa037
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Matthew Dellavedovaof Matthew Dellavedova, Koki Matsuda
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,480
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,480 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Koki Matsuda | 22c | 1,494$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.99 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Matthew Dellavedova | 77c | 1,404$1,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.34 | 1,227 | 53.2%653 W · 574 L | -5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0284…97f6backed Matthew Dellavedova | 79c | 993.25$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.45 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…5bdfbacked Koki Matsuda | 16c | 662.31$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.97 | 969 | 45.9%445 W · 524 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84eb…869dbacked Koki Matsuda | 28c | 606.82$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.71 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Koki Matsuda | 22c | 599.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a00…9158backed Koki Matsuda | 21c | 507.59$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.59 | 788 | 40.6%320 W · 468 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Matthew Dellavedova | 80c | 333.76$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.1 | 1,175 | 52.9%622 W · 553 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffe…a60fbacked Matthew Dellavedova | 78c | 260.79$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.37 | 166 | 67.5%112 W · 54 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Koki Matsuda | 31c | 222$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.82 | 307 | 46.3%142 W · 165 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x540e…263dbacked Koki Matsuda | 16c | 130.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 99 | 24.2%24 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Matthew Dellavedova | 71c | 118.22$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.91 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Matthew Dellavedova | 71c | 112.39$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 923 | 52.5%485 W · 438 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Koki Matsuda | 22c | 79.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Matthew Dellavedova | 72c | 76$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Koki Matsuda | 24c | 63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf21…667bbacked Koki Matsuda | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 214 | 19.6%42 W · 172 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Matthew Dellavedova | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,349 | 49.8%672 W · 677 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Matthew Dellavedova | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 739 | 51.7%382 W · 357 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…33c9backed Koki Matsuda | 22c | 44.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,300 | 36.9%480 W · 820 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Matthew Dellavedova | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1,725 | 52.2%901 W · 824 L | -8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f3…d6dcbacked Matthew Dellavedova | 76c | 29.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 870 | 60.2%524 W · 346 L | +28.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Matthew Dellavedova | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Matthew Dellavedova | 77c | 13.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.