Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: Nova Esports vs G2 Esports (BO1)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdf4f48fd000f1aaaf2cbb2f5a4058283ed0599eff571121d9554c5533dcf73c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- G2 Esportsof Nova Esports, G2 Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,529
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,786
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,529 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb877…a13fbacked Nova Esports | 1c | 1,826$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5215…3164backed Nova Esports | 4c | 1,179$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Nova Esports | 17c | 1,025$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.42 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Nova Esports | 18c | 968.97$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.09 | 107 | 43.9%47 W · 60 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69db…283abacked Nova Esports | 23c | 728.93$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.03 | 361 | 38.5%139 W · 222 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Nova Esports | 9c | 649.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.85 | 796 | 50%398 W · 398 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf353…b287backed Nova Esports | 7c | 642.87$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Nova Esports | 21c | 599.99$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.91 | 312 | 32.7%102 W · 210 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Nova Esports | 10c | 557.04$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.16 | 395 | 45.8%181 W · 214 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd196…9204backed G2 Esports | 79c | 477.43$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked G2 Esports | 77c | 173.91$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -15%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6794…c10dbacked Nova Esports | 26c | 167.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Nova Esports | 37c | 146.69$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7433…c66cbacked G2 Esports | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Nova Esports | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 308 | 28.2%87 W · 221 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed G2 Esports | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 45cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Nova Esports | 21c | 96.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 274 | 11.3%31 W · 243 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48a9…0d53backed G2 Esports | 80c | 81$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked Nova Esports | 18c | 78.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed G2 Esports | 76c | 73.67$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0c3dbacked G2 Esports | 77c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22b2…e7cfbacked G2 Esports | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed G2 Esports | 65c | 23.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…5126backed G2 Esports | 78c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 54cpaid | +58%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.