College Football · resolved market
Nevada Wolf Pack vs. Fresno State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe0440e642c5091975b5a5ed690e9f764666744c65663d51a6895526dd6d122a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fresno Stateof Nevada Wolf Pack, Fresno State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,657
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,373
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,657 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Nevada Wolf Pack | 20c | 6,685$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,325.06 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Fresno State | 80c | 5,625$4,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,125 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc567…04bfbacked Nevada Wolf Pack | 31c | 4,258$1,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,302 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 17c | 1,688$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.08 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Fresno State | 75c | 1,187$892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.61 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x157e…c040backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 32c | 1,064$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Nevada Wolf Pack | 19c | 1,031$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 224 | 37.5%84 W · 140 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Nevada Wolf Pack | 19c | 927.99$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.67 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Fresno State | 67c | 915.87$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.16 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Nevada Wolf Pack | 19c | 890$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.02 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Nevada Wolf Pack | 20c | 888$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.84 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…e0cbbacked Fresno State | 72c | 627.83$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.33 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…3af2backed Fresno State | 80c | 456$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa805…83dcbacked Nevada Wolf Pack | 23c | 425$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 102 | 20.6%21 W · 81 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 18c | 279.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…73fdbacked Nevada Wolf Pack | 19c | 258.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd2…fec8backed Fresno State | 80c | 125.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd4…dfaebacked Nevada Wolf Pack | 33c | 120.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 280 | 32.9%92 W · 188 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 30c | 83.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe914…1707backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.