Mls · resolved market
Charlotte FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe55d221a3ca717c8e6b47885c868758cf195619223b1641ea034c71c1acce93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,014
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,643
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,014 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4947…d93abacked Over | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 19c | 607.28$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.38 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 29c | 281.03$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.89 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 23c | 264.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.26 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 23c | 250$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.98 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 19c | 217.8$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 32c | 202.21$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea3…71a1backed Over | 19c | 168.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 19c | 110.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 19c | 108.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 19c | 102.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Over | 31c | 48.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 42c | 47.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf392…bb0dbacked Under | 68c | 39.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 64c | 39.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18ff…e90ebacked Under | 69c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 67c | 29.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 68c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…2bf2backed Under | 71c | 18.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Under | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Charlotte FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 3.5this page
- Charlotte FC vs. Philadelphia Union: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Charlotte FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 1.5Over won
- Charlotte FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 2.5Over won
- Charlotte FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Charlotte FC (-1.5)Philadelphia Union won
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-1.5)Charlotte FC won
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-2.5)Charlotte FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.