Mls · resolved market
Charlotte FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37e52d65c7bdee7a5a41d871139dbc58365ba60c35942f2df084d90e10beca1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,499
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 35c | 717.68$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.22 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 79c | 633.92$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.92 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 59c | 547.85$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.68 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 63c | 527$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.99 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 24c | 358.33$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.57 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 21c | 341.84$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.19 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 36c | 335.25$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.17 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 66c | 303.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.2 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 78c | 254.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.88 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 41c | 253.31$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.91 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 21c | 207.24$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 37c | 203.6$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.39 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 66c | 181.62$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.75 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 52c | 136.35$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.84 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 65c | 134.5$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.43 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 21c | 125$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea3…71a1backed Over | 66c | 107.3$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 65c | 71$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 23c | 70.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 22c | 65.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…19cabacked Over | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb7…a4b4backed Under | 46c | 59.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 31c | 51.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Under | 28c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Over | 72c | 51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd817…ac33backed Under | 29c | 42.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Under | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked Under | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…7685backed Under | 36c | 30.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 76c | 20.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 63c | 20.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e91cbacked Over | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9d…7d9ebacked Over | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Over | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b0…7b16backed Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Charlotte FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 1.5this page
- Charlotte FC vs. Philadelphia Union: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Charlotte FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 2.5Over won
- Charlotte FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 3.5Under won
- Charlotte FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Charlotte FC (-1.5)Philadelphia Union won
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-1.5)Charlotte FC won
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-2.5)Charlotte FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.