MLB · resolved market
Pirates vs. Red Sox: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfec4512445e289f66412bd1be0e221519f660c9e17b0d6294daea264673c83fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,424
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,424 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Over | 46c | 2,212$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.05 | 549 | 41%225 W · 324 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Under | 55c | 1,163$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.73 | 543 | 45.5%247 W · 296 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Under | 53c | 800$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Over | 69c | 300$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.97 | 577 | 44.7%258 W · 319 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Under | 34c | 239.47$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.05 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 34c | 237.03$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.79 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Under | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Over | 63c | 199.99$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.99 | 301 | 51.5%155 W · 146 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 62c | 188.05$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.55 | 1,097 | 50.1%550 W · 547 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7968…5283backed Under | 38c | 183.58$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.82 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a5…3120backed Under | 37c | 140.16$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.3 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 57c | 127$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.08 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x113b…70b5backed Under | 39c | 115.9$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.7 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc86d…7d43backed Under | 37c | 106.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.27 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x448a…f2b7backed Over | 68c | 97.06$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x303f…4c97backed Over | 66c | 92.91$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.32 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5e…4167backed Under | 52c | 90.38$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb3…cf01backed Over | 66c | 85.23$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -7.1wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -46%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b4…3e3cbacked Under | 37c | 81.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…a9f8backed Over | 66c | 76.88$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97cf…1e51backed Over | 66c | 71.38$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2348…0d55backed Over | 66c | 70.55$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6205…19febacked Under | 39c | 67.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Under | 31c | 60.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.78 | 326 | 51.5%168 W · 158 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e3…fff7backed Over | 69c | 58.8$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.57 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…45afbacked Under | 39c | 55.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2b…f218backed Over | 66c | 54.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +6.8wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…5e7cbacked Over | 69c | 53.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb33b…18efbacked Over | 66c | 46.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe929…a768backed Over | 66c | 42.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed Over | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 356 | 52.5%187 W · 169 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb219…9f58backed Under | 38c | 32.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc1…201bbacked Over | 70c | 27.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Over | 64c | 26.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 148 | 63.5%94 W · 54 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3640…9b87backed Over | 65c | 26.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pirates vs. Red Sox: O/U 6.5this page
- Pirates vs. Red SoxPirates won
- Spread: Pirates (-1.5)Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.