Tennis · resolved market
Japan Women's Open: Katie Boulter vs Linda Noskova
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfecd5674830010345dddf6936f25c1e44ebfbd15355a80f86cfba5ed8e51ea0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boulterof Boulter, Noskova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,566
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,548
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,566 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Noskova | 0c | 26,407$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boulter | 58c | 2,658$1,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,112.11 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a7…86cebacked Noskova | 30c | 999.99$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Noskova | 47c | 961$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.04 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2d…673fbacked Noskova | 43c | 650$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.5 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Noskova | 54c | 350$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Boulter | 63c | 335.98$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.39 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Boulter | 42c | 314.85$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.01 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Boulter | 39c | 299.62$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.39 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Noskova | 47c | 256$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.14 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Noskova | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Noskova | 76c | 131.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Noskova | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 177 | 67.2%119 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Boulter | 59c | 130.52$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Noskova | 49c | 120$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.78 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe944…0837backed Noskova | 32c | 106.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Boulter | 24c | 54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6030…dc7abacked Boulter | 50c | 42.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.