Fifa International · resolved market
Will Belgium win on 2025-11-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfed976a8465df16ff0aeb9dbf2638eaee9de4f082b2b861cbb023814eaf138fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $513,942
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $535,168
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $513,942 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed No | 2c | 125,000$2,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,510 | 250 | 38.8%97 W · 153 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 1c | 50,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.95 | 270 | 39.6%107 W · 163 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked No | 1c | 32,286$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.57 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed No | 2c | 23,925$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.17 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80f…e3d8backed No | 2c | 20,000$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.62 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed No | 1c | 18,532$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 2c | 14,968$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.37 | 145 | 37.2%54 W · 91 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…4af9backed No | 1c | 10,578$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.41 | 125 | 25.6%32 W · 93 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…5471backed No | 1c | 10,504$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.05 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd178…6703backed No | 1c | 10,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 113 | 54%61 W · 52 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e0…4510backed No | 1c | 9,400$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 1c | 8,882$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.39 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked No | 1c | 7,692$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 304 | 31.3%95 W · 209 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…ed41backed No | 2c | 7,600$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.4 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd339…b12dbacked No | 1c | 6,000$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 1c | 5,050$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.75 | 605 | 11.4%69 W · 536 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22ed…002bbacked No | 2c | 4,997$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 86 | 31.4%27 W · 59 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff0e…2991backed No | 2c | 4,548$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.15 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +80%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7b…d405backed No | 1c | 4,415$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.57 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b0…b71fbacked No | 1c | 4,120$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad6a…9dbdbacked No | 1c | 3,926$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…c186backed No | 1c | 3,630$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7222…20dcbacked No | 1c | 3,200$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x795f…1871backed No | 1c | 2,720$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…2aefbacked No | 1c | 2,500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked No | 2c | 2,088$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed No | 2c | 2,052$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked No | 1c | 2,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 236 | 22%52 W · 184 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 5c | 1,836$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.63 | 218 | 37.2%81 W · 137 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ae…6bc8backed No | 1c | 1,484$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 1c | 1,072$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked No | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 224 | 21%47 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b2…d101backed No | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…6a3dbacked No | 2c | 1,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…8f51backed No | 2c | 511.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…b699backed No | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…d00fbacked No | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 215.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 15c | 119.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 82 | 26.8%22 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Belgium win on 2025-11-18?this page
- Will Belgium vs. Liechtenstein end in a draw?No won
- Will Liechtenstein win on 2025-11-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.