Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfef1338aeef11402410712fa03864ab2778c0b8fb8a356019d2250910449069a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,727
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,727 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes | 77c | 579.36$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.01 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd3…b441backed No | 61c | 557.29$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.14 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 12c | 389.47$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 14c | 290.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 10c | 289.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 10c | 232.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.12 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 50c | 186.98$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 24c | 172.59$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 15c | 160.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 9c | 142.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 14c | 139.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 13c | 88.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 22c | 87.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes | 65c | 81.86$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…76cebacked No | 30c | 71.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed No | 46c | 54.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 35c | 47.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…be9bbacked Yes | 79c | 43.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 60c | 43.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 66c | 41.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf569…a8bbbacked Yes | 77c | 38.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 46c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c15…ee6cbacked Yes | 77c | 25.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3be5…bc8bbacked Yes | 43c | 25.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 59c | 21.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on July 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.