Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff031051697bc0fbd1a0bc836e986b79297c31f22023d5a916809a5f1dbefb56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,544
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,230
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,544 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 74c | 337.32$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.74 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 50c | 240.99$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.42 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 53c | 234$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.05 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 7c | 232.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 73c | 208.54$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.23 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed No | 7c | 198.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 30c | 184.87$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.83 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 156.14$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.62 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 147.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 45c | 115$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.11 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…cb2abacked Yes | 42c | 107.51$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.76 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 54c | 105.09$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.47 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed Yes | 50c | 100.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.06 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7166…6922backed No | 37c | 95.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.73 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 39c | 81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 37c | 73.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked No | 47c | 63.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 66c | 63$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 35c | 59.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 40c | 57.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 50c | 55.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 50.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 50.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 56c | 44.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…19d9backed Yes | 51c | 39.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 71c | 38.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 48c | 38.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 48c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 67c | 37.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 55c | 36.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 30c | 35.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 54c | 34.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 37c | 33.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 32c | 33.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x191d…9db8backed Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 40c | 31.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 58c | 31.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafd0…a1dabacked Yes | 54c | 29.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 72c | 25.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf23…0d5dbacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 53c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 68c | 22.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 70c | 21.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 77c | 20.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb5…0200backed No | 72c | 20.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa01…b923backed Yes | 53c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 58c | 18.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 64c | 16.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 79c | 16.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.